AGP Executive Report

Inflation and Peso: Colombia’s annual inflation rose to 6.29% in September, driven largely by services. The peso fell 2.9% against the dollar, closing at 3,307.50 per dollar as a stronger U.S. currency weighed on the market. Auto Industry: The government has opened talks with Mazda on bringing vehicle assembly back to Colombia, potentially creating opportunities for local parts suppliers; the automaker has made no decision. Energy: Industry groups say Colombia’s unconventional formations may hold prospective oil and gas resources far above proven reserves, but drilling is needed to establish what can be produced. Corporate Deals: Billionaire Jaime Gilinski is positioned to become GeoPark’s majority shareholder through a stake initially valued at about $515 million, exchanged for rights to develop a Venezuelan oil field. Trade and Travel: Turkish Airlines will sell tickets connecting international passengers to eight Colombian cities on LATAM’s domestic routes. Agriculture: Colombia’s coffee output fell 15% in the 2025/26 season to 12.65 million bags, as adverse weather and lower yields hit production.

Auto Industry: Renault plans to use its South Korean plant to export vehicles to Colombia, citing the countries’ free-trade agreement. Colombia is also in talks with Mazda about a possible return to local assembly. Transport and Security: A car bomb at a toll booth in Cauca injured at least three people, underscoring risks to travel and freight on the Pan-American Highway. Digital Economy: Colombia’s software and IT-services exports topped $2 billion for the first time; the broader digital sector generated $2.463 billion in overseas sales and employs 406,000 people. Agriculture: Coffee production fell 15% in 2025/26 to 12.65 million bags, a setback for a major export industry. Jobs: Colombia had the OECD’s highest share of 15-to-24-year-olds not in employment, education or training, at 25.57%.

Mining Investment: Azerbaijan’s state-owned AzerGold is exploring potential mining projects and investment partnerships in Colombia, following talks with the country’s ambassador. Auto Industry: Colombia is discussing a possible return of Mazda vehicle assembly, 12 years after the company exited; talks signal interest in reviving local production, but no deal has been announced. Trade and Logistics: Emirates is adding seven weekly cargo flights across Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Ecuador, expanding air freight capacity in the region. Coffee: Colombia’s 2025/26 coffee output fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, a setback for a key export industry. Environmental Risk: An Interpol operation linked 161 companies across several continents to an investigation into Amazon forest clearing; in Colombia, the case involves more than 52,000 hectares of protected forest and alleged permit fraud.

Cargo Links: Emirates SkyCargo added a weekly freighter to Bogotá as part of seven new South American flights, expanding air-freight capacity for Colombian exporters. Auto Investment: Colombia held talks with Mazda on a possible return to local vehicle assembly, including a plant and local suppliers; any investment remains subject to the company’s review and feasibility studies. Coffee: Production fell 15% in the 2025–26 cycle to 12.65 million bags, a setback for one of the country’s key export industries. Prices and Growth: Inflation rose again in September, while Colombia faces hurdles in meeting commitments tied to a possible IMF lending deal. Air Travel: Arajet carried 35,413 passengers to and from Colombia in September; Bogotá was its top route, with 18,413 travelers.

Digital Banking: Nubank has begun its U.S. expansion with savings, credit-card and remittance products, initially serving customers through a partner bank as it seeks its own license. The Brazilian fintech already operates in Colombia. Regional Trade: Panama declared an emergency after a 7.7-magnitude earthquake, but the Panama Canal remained open, limiting immediate disruption to shipping. Coffee: Colombia’s 2025/26 coffee output fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, a setback for a major export industry. Energy: Colombia suspended electricity exports to Ecuador over domestic supply concerns, highlighting pressure on regional power flows. Growth Outlook: The World Bank expects Colombia’s economy to outpace Brazil and Mexico in 2026. Oil and Gas: Gran Tierra shareholders approved the sale of the company’s Colombian and Ecuadorian businesses.

Regional Infrastructure: Panama declared an emergency after a 7.7-magnitude earthquake damaged homes, schools and roads. The Panama Canal continued operating normally, though Tocumen airport briefly halted flights. Coffee: Colombia’s production fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, a setback for a key export sector. Energy Trade: Colombia suspended power exports to Ecuador over domestic supply concerns. Corporate Deals: Gran Tierra Energy shareholders approved the sale of its Colombian and Ecuadorian businesses. Growth Outlook: The World Bank expects Colombia’s economy to grow faster than Brazil’s and Mexico’s in 2026.

Regional Trade: A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Panama, damaging buildings and disrupting power and flights, but the Panama Canal and Cobre Panama mine continued operating normally. Coffee: Colombia’s 2025/26 harvest fell 15% to 12.65 million bags, while coffee exports dropped 12%, a setback for a sector supporting hundreds of thousands of families. Infrastructure: Bogotá’s Metro Line 1 project faces a dispute between the city company and its supervisor, which says acceleration measures drove more than 25.2 billion pesos in claims; construction was 83.73% complete at September’s end. Economic Outlook: Colombia’s inflation rose again in September, while the country faces hurdles in meeting commitments under a possible IMF lending deal. Agriculture: Colombia is seeking Israeli irrigation technology and water-management expertise for drought-prone La Guajira, aiming to lift farm productivity and expand dairy and poultry production.

Energy Deal: Gran Tierra shareholders approved the US$1.33 billion sale of its Colombian and Ecuadorian businesses to France’s Maurel & Prom. Gran Tierra expects about US$315 million in net cash proceeds and says the deal would leave it debt-free. Tourism: Medellín hosts Colombia’s first Electric Daisy Carnival this weekend, bringing a major international festival to the city and a potential boost for visitor spending. Digital Access: Starlink’s terms point to a planned Community Wi-Fi program in Colombia, where local hosts could sell flexible access passes. Regional Power Trade: Colombia has ended electricity transfers to Ecuador, halting a cross-border supply link. Economic Outlook: September inflation rose again as Colombia faces hurdles in meeting commitments under a possible IMF lending deal.

Markets: Brazil’s post-election rally has pushed its five-year credit-risk spread to 108 basis points, below Colombia’s 164. Colombia retains an investment-grade rating from Moody’s but is rated speculative grade by Fitch and S&P. Energy: Parex Resources reported third-quarter production of 83,259 barrels of oil equivalent per day and maintained its 2026 guidance. It expects a November partnership with Ecopetrol to add about 7,000 barrels per day. Colombia has also suspended electricity exports to Ecuador, citing shortage risks. Economic Outlook: September inflation continued to rise, while Colombia faces hurdles in meeting commitments under a possible IMF lending deal. Fenalco is still challenging the 23.7% minimum-wage increase for 2026 as negotiations over next year’s wage begin. Fintech: Latin America’s fintech sector has grown 340% in six years. Colombia, Brazil and Mexico account for about 57% of the region’s fintech firms, with payments, remittances and lending among the main areas of activity.

Fiscal Outlook: Colombia is seeking an $8 billion to $20 billion IMF backstop as it confronts falling tax revenue and rising debt. The government forecasts deficits of 7.2% of GDP this year and 9.4% in 2027, but meeting loan conditions could prove difficult. Prices and Pay: Inflation rose again in September, while business group Fenalco is still challenging the 23.7% minimum-wage increase for 2026 as talks begin on next year’s pay. Energy Costs: A fuel-price freeze could cost more than $3 billion annually, while Colombia has suspended electricity exports to Ecuador over domestic supply concerns. Trade and Growth: Emirates SkyCargo reported an 18% rise in Colombian export volumes, and the World Bank expects Colombia to outpace Brazil and Mexico in 2026.

Energy Supply: Colombia suspended electricity exports to Ecuador as domestic shortages loom, sharpening questions over power security. The government’s renewed backing for fracking adds to debate over how to secure future supply. Growth Outlook: The World Bank expects Colombia to outpace Brazil and Mexico in 2026, while El Niño is already pressuring the economy. Trade and Logistics: E-commerce is booming, but rising volumes are squeezing air-cargo capacity. Digital Finance: Colombia’s Bre-B payment system marked its first year, with adoption reportedly outpacing Brazil’s Pix at the same stage. Public Finances: A proposed fuel-price freeze could cost more than US$3 billion a year, underscoring the fiscal stakes of energy policy.

Energy & Climate: Colombia has suspended commercial power exports to Ecuador as El Niño strains domestic supply. The weather agency expects conditions to persist into early 2027, putting farms, food prices, workers and household budgets at risk. Business Growth: Fashion label Baobab expects 2026 revenue of US$16 million, up 23% from last year, with nearly 70% of sales coming from abroad after its Paris Opera showcase. Economic Outlook: The World Bank forecasts 2.3% growth for Colombia in 2026, ahead of Brazil and Mexico, but high interest rates and fiscal constraints remain a brake. Reconstruction: The government’s Milagro Fund is now operating with US$311 million to begin earthquake recovery; the UN estimates direct damage at US$13.1 billion. Exports: The Philippines has approved health certificates for Colombian beef and pork, opening a new Asia-Pacific market. Screen Economy: Netflix’s “One Hundred Years of Solitude” generated an estimated US$162 million in economic activity in Colombia through production spending and local hiring.

Colombia Security: President Abelardo de la Espriella activated the Urano joint task force (about 1,200 troops and police) to choke ELN funding, focusing on stolen fuel, illegal mining and extortion, with early results including dozens of arrests and large volumes of illicit fuel seized. U.S.-Backed Anti-Cartel Ops: The U.S. moved MQ-9 Reaper drones to Colombia and Ecuador as part of a broader push against trafficking networks. Environmental Crime Crackdown: Interpol’s regional operation across nine countries led to 233 arrests and links between Amazon deforestation and companies, including a Colombia-linked network tied to dozens of firms. Cybercrime Cooperation: Belize and Colombia joined Caribbean partners for training led by Colombia’s National Police, including work on ransomware and crypto-related investigations. Gaming & Digital Media: Stake secured Alberta licensing to expand into Canada, while Spotify is rolling audiobooks into 180+ markets (including Colombia) with new access models. Finance & Compliance: The U.S. removed more than 70 Colombians from OFAC sanctions lists as part of sanctions modernization. Legal/Crime: A former TD Bank worker pleaded guilty in the U.S. for laundering $4.8M to Colombia via fraudulent accounts.

Sanctions & Compliance: The U.S. Treasury’s OFAC removed 125 individuals and entities (including about 73 unique Colombian names) from its sanctions lists after reviews found entries were outdated, deceased, defunct, or lacked enough detail for strict compliance checks. Anti-Corruption Crackdown: In Florida, a former TD Bank employee pleaded guilty to taking bribes and laundering over $4.8M to Colombia by exploiting internal fraud-prevention systems, including opening 86 fraudulent accounts tied to one Miami address. Security & Energy: Colombia launched the Urano joint task force in Valledupar to curb ELN fuel theft along a pipeline linking the Caribbean coast to Barrancabermeja, framing the fight as both a resource-control battle and a blow to cocaine production and illegal mining. Diplomacy & Travel: The U.S. also repositioned MQ-9 Reaper drones from Africa to Colombia and Ecuador as part of a broader anti-drug campaign. Consumer & Tech: Apple’s first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, is set for pre-orders in Colombia on Oct. 16 and sales on Oct. 23, with the 256GB model priced around 9.7M pesos. Macroeconomics: A diesel and gasoline price-freeze decision could cost Colombia more than $3B a year via the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund.

Aviation & Defense: Embraer and Mahindra are advancing preparations for India’s C-390 Millennium program, with Nagpur flagged as a potential final assembly site if the Indian Air Force selects the aircraft. Security & Energy Theft: Colombia’s government launched the Urano task force to crack down on ELN fuel theft from the Caribbean-to-Barrancabermeja pipeline, aiming to hit criminal economies tied to hydrocarbons. Corporate Governance: Ecopetrol asked prosecutors to investigate the Pacific LNG regasification contract awarded under the Petro administration, citing possible irregularities in the deal process. Climate Policy & Markets: Colombia’s Article 6 technical partner recommends issuing an emissions-reduction legal framework, setting a $20/t ITMO negotiation floor, and publishing eligible sectors. Business & Finance: Colombia’s top business association ANDI president Bruce Mac Master resigned amid rising tensions with the De la Espriella government. Mining Update: Aguia Resources says September gold output at its Santa Barbara project covered local corporate and operating costs for the first time, moving toward break-even. US-Latin America Aid: The US confirmed $52m in military aid redirected from Slovakia to Colombia, Ecuador, Panama and Peru. Lottery: Baloto’s COP 61.6bn jackpot was won in Nobsa, Boyacá—its biggest in nine years.

Brazil Election Shock: Right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro surged ahead of Lula in Brazil’s first round, setting up an Oct. 25 runoff and likely boosting market sentiment on expectations of tighter fiscal policy. Colombia Security Shift: Colombia’s new government signals a break from Petro’s “Total Peace,” emphasizing military pressure and rejecting intermediaries with illegal armed groups. Gambling Oversight: Jaime Vives Pinedo took office as president of Coljuegos, pledging tougher action against illegal gambling and higher revenue for subsidized healthcare. Water Watch in Bogotá: Reservoirs remain strong, but El Niño intensification is pushing some river basins to very low flows, raising risks for late-2026 into mid-2027. Agriculture Tension: Colombia’s agriculture minister sparked controversy by saying rice is “no longer profitable,” urging shifts in some regions and reigniting friction with rice producers. Business & Trade: Wingsure launched a coffee farm intelligence platform to streamline verified data for buyers, insurers and lenders. Energy/Industry: Gran Tierra said Azerbaijan’s parliament ratified its onshore exploration deal, while Colombia’s infrastructure push includes a COP loan to widen Bogotá’s Autopista Norte. Sports/Spotlight: Jhon Jader Duran faced renewed scrutiny after leaked training remarks. Lottery Win: A Nobsa, Boyacá resident won COP 61.6 billion in Baloto’s biggest jackpot in nine years.